EUR/USD. Week Preview. ZEW/PMI Indices and Fed Minutes

17.08.2026

The economic calendar for the next week is not rich in significant events for the EUR/USD pair. On Tuesday, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for Germany will be released, but the main test for the euro will come from the preliminary PMI indices, which will be published on Friday, August 21. There are also no significant macroeconomic data expected from the US.

Traders' attention will be focused on the minutes from the July Federal Reserve meeting, which will help assess the power dynamics within the Committee and reveal details about the hawkish split that alarmed markets at the end of last month.

In addition, geopolitical issues remain on the agenda concerning US-Iran relations and the ongoing Middle Eastern conflict. Any new signals of escalation could revive demand for the greenback (at least short-term demand), while a renewal of diplomatic dialogue could strengthen the euro's position.

ZEW + PMI

On Tuesday, August 18, the August ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for Germany and the Eurozone will be published. I remind you that in July, the German indicator unexpectedly rose to 26.3 points (from the previous value of 10.5 points), significantly exceeding market expectations (18.0 points). At the same time, the current situation assessment improved only to -77.6 points (after a June value of -81.0), indicating a persistent gap between weak current conditions and more optimistic expectations.

According to preliminary forecasts, the business environment sentiment index in Germany is expected to show positive dynamics again, rising to the 30-point mark in August.

As you know, this indicator reflects the expectations of several hundred financial analysts regarding the economic situation over a six-month horizon. It is considered a leading indicator of the business cycle. Although the ZEW is not a definitive indicator for the European Central Bank, its sustainable improvement will signal economic recovery, facilitating tighter rhetoric from the central bank. A weaker result (especially against such a bold, optimistic forecast) will be a negative signal for the euro, particularly if accompanied by deteriorating expectations for the Eurozone (in July, this sub-index rose from 9.5 to 23.4).

On Friday, August 21, the preliminary PMI indices of business activity in Germany, France, and the Eurozone will be released. This is one of the most significant macroeconomic indicators for the euro, as these indices allow for the assessment of the resilience of the Eurozone's economic recovery. In July, the composite PMI for the region rose to 52.0 points, from a previous value of 50.0, returning to the expansion zone for the first time since March. The situation in industry showed a particularly notable improvement: the manufacturing PMI rose to 51.9, with production showing the strongest growth since March 2022.

Now, market participants must determine whether the July improvement marked the beginning of a sustainable recovery or was merely temporary. A composite PMI value above 50 points will signal continued growth in business activity. According to preliminary forecasts, the manufacturing and services PMI indices for Germany and the Eurozone are expected to show minimal declines but remain in the expansion zone, that is, above the 50-point threshold. Such a result would also be reflected in the composite PMI index (for both Germany and the Eurozone).

Overall, if the release comes in at least at the forecast level (not to mention the "green zone"), the euro will receive significant support. According to the latest Reuters poll, most economists expect another 25-basis-point rate hike from the ECB in September, so the market will view any signs of sustainable economic growth as grounds for a more hawkish policy.

At the same time, weak PMIs could put pressure on the euro, especially if the deterioration affects both Germany and France simultaneously. It is clear that under the conditions of ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and high energy risks, the European Central Bank must avoid a situation in which an economic slowdown coincides with persistent inflationary pressure.

Fed Minutes

The minutes from the July Fed meeting will be published on Wednesday, August 19. This is perhaps the main (scheduled) event of the week for the US dollar.

I remind you that following the July meeting, the central bank maintained the interest rate at the previous level, implementing the most anticipated scenario. However, this decision was far from unanimous: three Committee members voted for a 25-basis-point rate increase. In this context, the protocol is of particular interest to EUR/USD traders, as it will allow them to assess the number of "hawkish" members within the Fed and understand which factors could shift the balance toward further policy tightening. Attention will focus on assessments of inflation risks, the labor market, and the impact of ongoing geopolitical and energy shocks on price pressure.

Here, it is essential to note that traders will view the Fed minutes in light of the weak labor market and inflation data (PCE, CPI, PPI) that were published after the July meeting. Furthermore, at the end of July, a disappointing US GDP report was released, confirming a slowdown in the American economy's growth.

In this context, softer rhetoric from Committee members could exert much stronger downward pressure on the greenback, while a potentially hawkish tone could provide support. The weak macroeconomic data released after the July meeting will intensify the "dovish" effect of the minutes, as the market will inevitably compare the Fed's position at the time of the July meeting with the already changed economic landscape.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair on the 4-hour chart is positioned at the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, as well as above all the Ichimoku indicator lines (including above the Kumo cloud), which has formed a bullish "Parade of Lines" signal. On the daily chart, the pair has overcome the upper boundary of the Kumo cloud (1.1560), but has not yet established a firm position above this target. Additionally, on the D1 timeframe, the price is between the middle and upper Bollinger Band lines and above the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines.

Overall, the current picture indicates a priority for long positions during southern corrective pullbacks. The first target for the upward movement is 1.1570 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on the H4 timeframe). If buyers overcome this target (and establish a position above it), the next target for upward movement will be the mark of 1.1630 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on the D1 timeframe).

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EUR/USD Analysis – August 14: The Dollar Has Weakened

14.08.2026

The 4-hour wave structure for EUR/USD is becoming more complex. There is still no question of invalidating the upward trend segment (lower chart) that began in January last year. On the contrary, we have seen a complete A-B-C corrective structure, which has most likely ended. We never saw wave 5 of C develop. More precisely, this wave took a truncated form, which also occurs from time to time. Let me remind you that classical wave structures are generally found only in textbooks. In real-world trading, traders and analysts need to be more flexible in their analysis. Therefore, I have been saying for a month now that traders should prepare for a rise in the euro. If the current wave structure is correct, the pair is at the very beginning of a new upward trend segment.

On the smaller timeframe, I can identify a classic five-wave downward structure with a truncated wave 5. I expected the euro to decline to the 1.13 level, but the fundamental backdrop turned against the dollar, and sellers simply lacked the strength to develop a convincing wave 5. Therefore, we can consider July 28 to be the starting point of a new upward wave sequence.

The U.S. currency no longer has any clear factors supporting it.

EUR/USD rose by 60 basis points during Friday's session, which is not particularly significant in itself. However, these 60 points suggest that the downward wave sequence may have ended. The trend segment that began on July 28 now looks like the beginning of an impulsive trend segment rather than a corrective one. Consequently, the euro may have potential for not only short-term but also long-term growth. The fundamental backdrop is also fully supportive of the euro. Over the past two weeks, market participants have been uncertain about the future prospects of the euro and the dollar, but the balance has ultimately shifted in favor of the single European currency. Let me briefly review the events of the past two weeks.

First, the Nonfarm Payrolls report fell short of expectations for the fourth consecutive time. Then the GDP report showed a slowdown to 1.5% on a quarterly basis. Inflation then slowed to 3.4%.The Producer Price Index also slowed in July. Overall, nearly all key economic reports released over the past month have shown results that do not support Fed monetary policy tightening, at least in September. Although they were also "weak." I am not saying that the FOMC will now completely abandon its "hawkish" plans, assuming such plans existed at all. I am simply saying that "hawkish" plans need to be supported by economic data, rather than merely by Kevin Warsh's statements about the unacceptably high level of inflation in the United States.

High inflation has persisted in the United States for five years and has remained above the Fed's target throughout this period. However, if the Fed is unable to raise interest rates, inflation may remain elevated, while Kevin Warsh and other policymakers may continue to emphasize the need to bring it down. The market once again drew incorrect conclusions following the June meeting. It assumed that the new Fed chair's comments about high inflation indicated a commitment to taking measures to reduce it. However, the labor market supports a more accommodative monetary policy stance, while Kevin Warsh, a Trump appointee, has also advocated for lower interest rates.

Overall Conclusions

Based on my EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair remains within the upward trend segment (lower chart) and, over the shorter term, has presumably transitioned into a new upward wave sequence. In my view, this is an excellent time to establish long positions. Wave 5 of C has taken a truncated form. Unless the downward trend segment that began on January 28 develops into a more extended five-wave structure—which would require strong fundamental news in favor of the dollar—EUR/USD is at the very beginning of a new, prolonged upward trend segment, with targets extending as high as the 1.25 level.

On the higher timeframe, an upward trend segment can be seen, followed by the development of a corrective wave sequence. The A-B-C structure has presumably been completed. If so, a new impulsive upward trend segment has begun to develop.

Main Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and easy to understand. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often involve changes in interpretation.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter the market.
3. There can never be 100% certainty about the direction of price movement. Do not forget to use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: Weak US Macroeconomic Data Favors the Euro, While Geopolitical Risks Support the Dollar

14.08.2026

EUR/USD continues to trade within the 1.1520–1.1570 price range, whose boundaries correspond to the lower and upper Bollinger Bands on the H4 timeframe. Traders cannot determine the pair's next direction amid conflicting fundamental factors. On one side are macroeconomic reports (NFP, CPI, and PPI), which have weakened the position of dollar bulls and, consequently, sellers of EUR/USD. On the other side is geopolitics, which continues to provide background support for the greenback as a safe-haven asset. These fundamental factors are effectively balancing each other, which is why the pair has remained range-bound for the second consecutive week.

The key macroeconomic releases of the past two weeks have been unfavorable for the dollar. July Nonfarm Payrolls signaled a cooling U.S. labor market, while the CPI and PPI reports reflected easing inflationary pressure.

However, the most important conclusion from the latest releases concerns not so much the slowdown in inflation or labor-market weakness itself, but rather the change in the balance of risks facing the Fed. Just a few weeks ago, the main argument in favor of a rate hike was the threat of a secondary inflationary impulse: high costs, tariff pressures, and elevated energy prices could have kept inflation at elevated levels. That threat now appears less clear-cut.

The July Nonfarm Payrolls report was the first significant signal in favor of revising previous expectations. The U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs, while the May and June figures were revised down by a combined 103,000. At the same time, the decline in the unemployment rate to 4.1% cannot be considered an unequivocally positive factor, as unemployment fell mainly because of a decline in labor-force participation rather than an acceleration in hiring. In addition, the inflation-sensitive indicator of wages also slowed in July. On a year-on-year basis, this indicator fell to a five-year low of 3.2%.

The inflation reports only reinforced this trend. July CPI increased by just 0.1% month-on-month, while the annual rate declined to 3.4%. At the same time, core CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month and slowed to 2.5% year-on-year, its lowest level since early 2021. Inflation has certainly not disappeared, but it is no longer showing the acceleration that could force the Fed to act preemptively.

Meanwhile, headline PPI was unchanged month-on-month in July, following a 0.1% decline in June, while the annual rate slowed sharply to 4.7% from 5.5%. Core PPI rose by just 0.2% month-on-month last month, significantly reducing concerns about the pass-through of higher production costs into consumer prices, although some components, particularly services, continue to show noticeable price pressures.

For these reasons, the probability of a Fed rate hike in September has declined significantly. According to the CME FedWatch tool, it is currently estimated at just 30%, whereas as recently as last week, traders had put the probability of policy tightening in early autumn at nearly 70%. Such a sharp revision in expectations appears well justified, as the latest macroeconomic reports have effectively deprived the Fed of one of its main arguments for further monetary policy tightening. Previously, the regulator could justify a rate hike by the need to "contain" the persistent inflationary impulse, but inflationary pressure is now gradually easing. At the same time, the labor market is showing increasingly clear signs of cooling. In this situation, an additional rate hike no longer appears to be an "unambiguously necessary" measure to combat inflation. At the same time, tighter monetary policy would create a risk of excessively slowing the economy and further weakening the labor market.

However, a full shift in expectations toward rate cuts is still some way off. The market will need more than one weak report for dovish expectations to become firmly established. A whole sequence of data will be required: further moderation in core inflation and PCE inflation, further weakening in employment, a rise in unemployment, and slower wage growth. For example, if the August labor-market data confirms the July "turning point" and inflation continues along a downward trajectory, dovish expectations will increase significantly. For now, however, we can speak only of the Fed maintaining a wait-and-see stance and the effective abandonment of the hawkish scenario. This outcome is putting background pressure on the greenback, but the geopolitical factor continues to offset the dollar's weakness, preventing EUR/USD buyers from moving beyond the current range.

Geopolitical tensions continue to fuel risk aversion in global markets. Just today, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that Washington would announce new sanctions against Iran next week, "which have never been imposed on any country in the world before." According to him, the measures would combine economic isolation with the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran, in turn, reiterated its demands to the United States today, the fulfillment of which would allow the strait to be reopened. These include ending the blockade of Iranian ports, unfreezing Iranian assets, and Washington agreeing to a ceasefire throughout the region, including Lebanon and Gaza. Until these demands are met, Tehran intends to keep the strait closed.

Thus, against this backdrop of conflicting fundamental factors, EUR/USD is likely to remain range-bound. Until new signals emerge from the Fed or the U.S.-Iran negotiation process, the pair will most likely continue trading within the established 1.1520–1.1570 price range.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD – Price Analysis and Forecast: The Euro Strengthens Amid Weak U.S. Economic Data

14.08.2026

Today, Friday, EUR/USD is attracting buyers as it continues its recovery above the 100-day SMA. Current spot prices are attempting to break out of the two-week range. Nevertheless, mixed signals remain in the market.

The U.S. Producer Price Index report released on Thursday fell short of expectations and, together with the weak Consumer Price Index figures, points to a slowdown in overall inflation. This gives the U.S. Federal Reserve room to keep interest rates unchanged, which, in turn, limits the dollar's decline below its two-week low.

On the other hand, the euro is supported by growing expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in September, as inflation in Europe remains above the 2% target. At the same time, persistent geopolitical uncertainty could limit the dollar's decline as a safe-haven currency, preventing EUR/USD bulls from extending their advance.

In the latest developments on Friday, NATO fighter jets shot down a drone in Latvian airspace, while Finland imposed temporary restrictions on air and maritime traffic in the eastern part of the Gulf of Finland. In addition, according to Reuters, Russia shot down 15 drones near its border with Finland and Estonia overnight, marking another escalation in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

Moreover, traders continue to price in a risk premium for military action amid tensions between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. This is compounded by attacks by Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen on vessels in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, as well as a recent report of a drone attack on a Saudi Aramco oil refinery, increasing the risk of a broader regional conflict. All of this supports demand for the U.S. dollar and limits the upside potential of EUR/USD.

From a technical perspective, the pair's break above the 100-day SMA is favorable for the bulls. At the same time, oscillators remain positive and are far from overbought territory, indicating potential for further gains. The nearest resistance is now the round-number level of 1.1600, while the key support is the round-number level of 1.1500. However, for the bulls to gain full control of the market, they need to break above the 200-day SMA.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD – Smart Money Analysis: Bullish Pressure Has Finally Increased

14.08.2026

EUR/USD remains within the local "bearish" impulse that began on April 17, but with each passing day, the bulls are putting increasing pressure on the prevailing trend. To launch a full-scale advance, they only need to invalidate "bearish" imbalance 17. However, today, they took a step that brings them closer to achieving this. The fundamental backdrop remains unfavorable for the bears. Traders did not receive any clear signals from Kevin Warsh that he was ready to support monetary policy tightening. In July, the number of new Nonfarm Payrolls jobs decreased by 23,000, marking a decline for the fourth consecutive month. Inflation slowed by 0.7% in June and by another 0.1% in July. All of this suggests that the Fed should not be expected to tighten monetary policy in September.

As I warned in recent weeks, if the labor market produces another weak result, this would be a sufficiently strong reason for the Fed to abandon a rate hike. Of course, this cannot be stated with complete certainty, as there will be at least one more inflation report and one more labor-market report before the next FOMC meeting. However, I am almost certain that the Fed will maintain a wait-and-see stance in September as well. Almost all traders are now abandoning their "hawkish" expectations for September. However, this is still not enough to invalidate imbalance 17.

Let me remind you that expectations of Fed monetary policy tightening are currently just expectations, which can change in response to geopolitical developments or economic data. The latest U.S. labor-market data showed weak results, inflation is slowing, and GDP growth is losing momentum. These three factors raise doubts about an FOMC rate hike not only in September but also in the foreseeable future. If the Strait of Hormuz is reopened in the near future, this would only reduce energy-related pressures and allow inflation to continue declining, further weakening the bears' prospects. The bears' only chance at present lies in a new escalation and a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

The current technical picture points to the continuation of the "bearish" impulse. "Bearish" imbalance 17 was tested, but the reaction to it was weak. Therefore, this pattern may be invalidated. A "bullish" imbalance 19 has also formed, allowing the bulls to look ahead with optimism. If imbalance 17 is invalidated while imbalance 19 remains untested, traders will have to wait for new "bullish" patterns before they can open long positions. There are currently no grounds whatsoever for opening short positions. Even if imbalance 17 eventually produces another reaction, such a signal would have little value, given that the pattern has been forming for more than two weeks.

The economic backdrop was again unfavorable for the bears on Friday. The first report of interest was released only a few hours ago. U.S. Retail Sales declined by 0.6% in July, compared with the market expectation of +0.1%, while the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 51.0 points, versus a forecast of 54.5. The morning report on Eurozone GDP was ignored by the market, while the bulls had already begun their advance in the morning. Thus, the bulls were positioned one step ahead from the beginning of the day, while the U.S. reports merely provided additional support.

There are still numerous reasons for the bulls to launch an advance in 2026, and the war in the Middle East has not reduced their number. Structurally and globally, Trump's policies, which led to a significant decline in the dollar last year, have not changed. At present, I do not see any significant factors supporting the U.S. currency, despite the FOMC's "hawkish" stance. Nevertheless, the bears are still leading the advance for now, while there are no "bullish" signals.

News Calendar for the United States and the European Union:

On August 17, the economic calendar contains no releases. The economic backdrop will have no impact on market sentiment on Monday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a "bullish" trend. The fundamental backdrop shifted sharply in favor of the bears five months ago, but the trend itself cannot be considered invalidated or complete. Thus, the bulls may well continue their advance after two liquidity sweeps of clearly defined lows. A sell signal may have formed within imbalance 17, but the reaction was weak, so this pattern will most likely be invalidated. A "bullish" signal may form within imbalance 19, but the price is moving increasingly farther away from this pattern. Despite the relatively strong rise in the euro, there are currently no clear opportunities to open long positions. Traders should wait for new "bullish" patterns to form, for imbalance 19 to be tested, or consider trading the British pound.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD – August 14: PPI Does Not Favor the Dollar

14.08.2026

On Thursday, EUR/USD attempted to resume its decline toward the 61.8% retracement level at 1.1507, but in the second half of the day, the bulls pushed the bears back. Trader activity remains low. Today, a rebound from the 1.1551 level would again favor the U.S. dollar and some decline toward 1.1507. Consolidation above 1.1551 would allow traders to expect a continuation of the rise toward the 100.0% retracement level at 1.1620.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains "bullish." The latest completed upward wave broke the previous high, while the latest downward wave did not break the previous low. All waves are currently extremely small. Geopolitical developments have raised hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could be reopened, while Iran, the United States, and Oman are holding talks on control of the strategically important strait. Thus, geopolitics is currently not working in the dollar's favor, while the market's "hawkish" expectations regarding FOMC monetary policy are easing.

The fundamental backdrop was rather uneventful on Thursday. Industrial production in the European Union disappointed traders once again, but the euro did not remain under pressure for long. In the second half of the day, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) was released, showing a notable decline to 4.7% year-on-year. Inflation is slowing, which provides some relief to Kevin Warsh and other FOMC members, whom the markets are currently calling for to tighten monetary policy. However, in my view, it is too early to relax. The Producer Price Index declined for the same reason as headline inflation. In July, oil prices fell to $70 per barrel. Therefore, first, fuel and gas became cheaper for companies, and second, companies stopped factoring future increases in energy prices into their costs. In August, energy prices began rising again, as there are currently no hopes that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened in the near future. Thus, PPI and CPI could be noticeably higher this month than in July. The dollar again came under pressure, as the FOMC may leave monetary policy parameters unchanged in September.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the descending trend channel, suggesting not merely a "bullish" attack, but a full-fledged bullish advance and trend. A rebound from 1.1578 allowed the bears to push the pair down to 1.1514, but a rebound from 1.1514 once again gives the bulls an opportunity to attack. No new emerging divergences are currently observed on any of the indicators. Consolidation below 1.1514 would allow traders to expect a decline toward the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1411.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 3,128 Long positions and 17,484 Short positions. During the seven weeks in February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage evaporated because of the war in Iran, while over the following nineteen weeks, the situation became more balanced amid the apparent ceasefire and the market's hopes for an end to the war. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 202,000, compared with 260,000 Short positions. The bears are once again taking the lead.

Overall, over the long term, large market participants continue to show strong interest in the euro. Of course, various events around the world, which have been plentiful in recent years, affect investor sentiment. In particular, the market is currently keeping a close eye on the situation in the Middle East, where the war appears to end and then resume again. The market initially ignored the ceasefire and then ignored the resumption of the war. Thus, geopolitics no longer determines the dollar's fate on its own.

News Calendar for the United States and the European Union:

• European Union – Change in GDP in the second quarter (09:00 UTC).
• United States – Change in Retail Sales (12:30 UTC).
• United States – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC).

On August 14, the economic calendar contains three entries, none of which I consider important. The impact of the fundamental backdrop on market sentiment on Friday will be limited.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Buying opportunities may arise today if the pair closes above 1.1551 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1620. Selling opportunities may arise after a rebound from 1.1551 on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1507 and 1.1472.

The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1620 to 1.1325 on the hourly chart and from 1.1411 to 1.1850 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD Analysis on August 14. The Agonizing Choice of the Fed

14.08.2026

The wave analysis of the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD instrument is becoming more complicated. There is still no talk of canceling the upward section of the trend (bottom image), which began in January of last year. However, the trend's wave structure has taken on a corrective form. In the long term, we should expect the formation of wave C, the low of which should be below the low of wave A. Currently, the low of wave C is below the low of wave A, which means that wave C could be completed at any moment or may already be finished. However, with a favorable news background for the dollar, this wave could take a more extended form.

On a smaller scale, I can identify a classic five-wave downward structure. If this assumption is correct, we are currently building wave 4, while wave 3 has taken on a five-wave form. After completing this structure, the instrument may transition to an upward set of waves. However, according to the current wave analysis, the formation of wave 5 has not yet begun. Consequently, the European currency may still drop to the 13 figure or lower.

The Market Abandons Hawkish Expectations

The EUR/USD exchange rate remained unchanged on Thursday. The market did not react at all to the latest economic data from the Eurozone and the US. Should we therefore focus on these data and analyze them? In my opinion, no. I believe we should analyze those events that currently hold significance for market participants. What can we attribute to such events? Perhaps only the prospects of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. However, everything that can be said on this topic has already been stated. Following last week's disappointing payrolls report, the probability of a Fed interest rate hike in September continued to decline this week. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a tightening of the Fed's policy in September is now at 33%. I would note that this figure has fallen from 70% over the past two weeks. This means that the market has abandoned its own "hawkish" expectations for the upcoming FOMC meeting.

Now let's ponder the longer-term perspective. If the market has changed its expectations for September under the pressure of economic data, what could prevent it from changing its expectations for the October or December meetings? Currently, the futures market builds in a 68% probability of at least one round of tightening by the end of the year. However, under the pressure of the same economic data, these "hawkish" expectations could also evaporate. If the US labor market has been falling for four consecutive months, what would prevent it from continuing to "cool"? Last year, the Fed had to cut interest rates three times to boost the labor market. This year, there is no option to "lower" rates, as inflation remains above target and is likely to accelerate again in August. Consequently, it is highly likely that at the remaining meetings through the end of the year, Kevin Warsh and his team will also prefer not to change monetary policy parameters. Of course, unless the situation with the war in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz changes for the better.

General Conclusions

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within the upward section of the trend (bottom image), while in the shorter term, it is within a downward section of the trend. In my opinion, now is a good time to try to form long positions. However, the instrument may still drop to the 13 figure as part of wave 5 in C. Wave analysis often presents surprises, so I would start shifting my focus toward purchases.

On a larger scale, an upward section of the trend is visible, after which the construction of a corrective wave set began. In the near future, we should expect the formation of wave C with targets around the 1.1352 mark, which corresponds to 38.2% Fibonacci. After the completion of the A-B-C structure, a new long-term upward trend may begin.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often incorporate changes.
2. If there is no certainty about what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There is never 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Do not forget about protective orders, such as Stop-Loss.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Weak US Economic Data Weighs on the Dollar

14.08.2026

The US economy continues to grow, the labor market remains resilient, and the dollar is weakening—as if it were ignoring the positive developments. This paradox has concerned the Forex market more over the past month than any macroeconomic data.

Following the Fed's July meeting, the greenback lost ground. Kevin Warsh's press conference convinced markets that the central bank was not prepared to respond aggressively to a new surge in inflation. Long-term Treasury yields rose, but this did not help the dollar—EUR/USD remained stable around 1.15.

Nevertheless, short-term risks for the U.S. dollar appear balanced. The weak July employment report prompted the futures market to reduce its expectations for Fed monetary tightening to one rate hike instead of two. If the data improves, the greenback could receive some temporary support.

However, positioning suggests otherwise. The market is already positioned short on EUR/USD, betting on further dollar strength. It would take only a few negative surprises in U.S. economic data for investors to rush to close these positions, potentially triggering another wave of dollar weakness. At the same time, implied volatility for the pair remains surprisingly low—as if markets were overlooking the scale of the two-sided risks.

U.S. Dollar Performance and the Treasury Yield Differential

In fact, the root of the problem lies deeper than current economic conditions. Over the past seven years, the dollar exchange rate has been closely linked to the slope of the yield curve—the spread between 30-year and 2-year Treasury yields. The curve is expected to flatten further, along with the risk premium priced into long-term yields, which currently appears unjustifiably low.

In reality, the dollar is weakening not because of a weak economy, but despite a strong one. Sustained GDP growth no longer guarantees support for the currency—fiscal imbalances and elevated asset valuations are playing an increasingly important role. The value of the U.S. stock market has reached approximately 238% of GDP, while foreign portfolios are already heavily concentrated in U.S. assets. There is increasingly less room for additional capital inflows.

Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to keep its policy rate at 3.5–3.75% through the end of 2026, while the ECB is expected to add another 25 basis points in September, bringing its deposit rate to 2.5%. According to the bank, the risks to European monetary policy are tilted more toward further tightening than toward a pause.

Thus, the interest-rate differential is gradually ceasing to be the main argument in favor of the dollar. Fiscal fundamentals and imbalanced positioning matter much more for the dollar's outlook than another employment report.

I do not think the dollar will manage to recover from these problems by the end of the year.

Technically, on the daily chart, EUR/USD bulls have managed to consolidate above the 2–4 line of the Wolfe Wave pattern and break above the fair value level. Long positions opened at 1.154 can be increased if resistance at 1.157 is broken.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The Market Continues to Expect Fed Tightening Despite Weak Economic Data

14.08.2026

The market is paying no attention to negative labor-market data or the continued slowdown in inflation in the United States. It is now "hoping" for the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report, believing that a rise in the index could become an argument in favor of an interest-rate hike in September.

Overall, an interesting situation has developed in the market, one that has occurred before in the history of the confrontation between market participants and the Fed. Large market players have been putting pressure on the regulator, urging it to take measures that would benefit them, while repeating the familiar claim that the central bank is losing credibility. For example, during the 2008–09 mortgage crisis, representatives of the financial markets persistently called on U.S. financial authorities to distribute "helicopter money" and implement quantitative easing, effectively flooding the U.S. economy with unbacked dollars. The financial authorities eventually gave in and accommodated these demands, while the U.S. financial system entered a prolonged decline whose effects are still being felt today.

Thus, we are currently witnessing something similar. Large market participants are attempting to influence the Federal Reserve. Perhaps we would not have seen such strong pressure if the Fed had, as before, begun providing signals about whether it intended to raise interest rates. However, Kevin Warsh does not want to do this, arguing that market participants should make their own assessments rather than rely on clear and explicit signals.

In fact, the current confrontation is creating market uncertainty, which is reflected in nervous reactions to the release of important U.S. economic data. The initial reaction is indeed appropriate—for example, to the extremely weak labor-market data, which was highly negative—but then the market returns to its previous behavior because the idea that interest rates must be raised while inflation remains above the 2% target once again takes hold.

What Can Be Expected in the Markets Today?

I believe that the absence of important economic data releases today will encourage sideways trading across all markets.

Daily Forecast:

GOLD

Gold found support at 4310.00. The price is recovering, which could lead to a limited rise toward the target level of 4427.94. The stop-loss level could be set at 4218.66. The 4363.80 level could serve as an entry point for a long position.

AUD/USD

The pair is trading above 0.7055. It could rise toward 0.7090. The stop-loss level could be set at 0.7041. The 0.7064 level could serve as an entry point for buying on a downward pullback.

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GBP/USD – Smart Money Analysis: Multiple Factors Are Contributing to the Dollar's Decline

14.08.2026

GBP/USD continues to rise, which I consider fully justified. Reports on the U.S. economy, labor market, and inflation have largely settled the debate over whether the FOMC will raise interest rates in September. Nonfarm Payrolls declined for the fourth consecutive time and fell below zero. The U.S. economy is slowing. Inflation is declining. The situation may change over time, but at present, the FOMC is much closer to maintaining a wait-and-see stance than to making "hawkish" decisions. In recent weeks, there have been widespread market rumors that high inflation would force the Fed to raise interest rates. Kevin Warsh has also spoken about excessive inflation that needs to be brought back to the target level. However, as I expected, inflation is not the only factor that matters to the regulator. The labor market is no less important to the FOMC, and its current condition cannot be ignored. Overall, the situation for the Fed in August has become extremely difficult. Tightening monetary policy could cause the economy and labor market to weaken further. At the same time, waiting is also problematic, as inflation could begin to accelerate again. Donald Trump is unwilling to make concessions to Iran, while Iran sees no need to reach any agreements with Trump. The conflict continues, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains in place, and autumn begins in three weeks. An energy crisis just a few months before the start of winter would create additional risks. By the end of the week, the bulls resumed their justified pressure.

As I have already noted, geopolitics is no longer having a favorable impact on the dollar, as negotiations between the United States and Iran have effectively stalled. Officially, Tehran is negotiating only with Oman. It is still unclear what these negotiations will lead to in terms of ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran may manage to agree with Oman on the terms for controlling the Strait of Hormuz, but how would this resolve the conflict with the United States and end the U.S. blockade of the strait?

This week, oil prices rose to $92 per barrel. If the situation develops according to the most pessimistic scenario, oil prices will continue to rise and retest the March–May highs. In this case, inflation in the United States or the United Kingdom could begin to accelerate again. If the situation develops according to the optimistic scenario, oil prices will return to the $60–70 per barrel range. In that case, further Fed tightening may not be necessary, while the Bank of England is currently not facing significant pressure from high inflation. At present, however, it is the Fed that cannot commit to a "hawkish" move, while the Bank of England, by contrast, is prepared to tighten monetary policy if inflation begins to accelerate, although there are currently no signs of this.

Technical analysis shows a new bullish advance. Traders currently have two "bullish" imbalances (24 and 25), within which buying opportunities can be considered. Imbalance 24 has already produced a "bullish" signal that traders could have acted on. There are currently no "bearish" patterns. No liquidity sweeps have occurred recently. Therefore, traders currently only need to keep their long positions open. Another "bullish" imbalance may form next week following Friday's strong rise.

The economic backdrop on Friday was not the main reason for the dollar's renewed decline and the bears' retreat. The first reports were released only a few hours ago and fully supported the bulls. U.S. Retail Sales were much weaker than traders had expected, while the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index showed another deterioration. Thus, U.S. economic data simply allowed the bulls to increase the strength of their advance.

The overall fundamental backdrop remains such that, over the long term, I see little reason to expect anything other than a decline in the dollar. The war between Iran and the United States has not changed this view. The possibility of Fed rate hikes in 2026 has not changed it either. Geopolitical developments caused the market to focus on the dollar's safe-haven status for several months, but the conflict has already passed its active phase. The chances of FOMC monetary policy tightening have declined significantly in recent weeks, putting pressure on the U.S. currency. Therefore, in my view, any rise in the dollar is temporary and driven by short-term factors. I see no reason for a new bearish advance.

News Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

On August 17, the economic calendar contains no significant releases. The economic backdrop is unlikely to have any impact on market sentiment on Monday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish. After liquidity sweeps of the two most recent swings, the bulls began an advance, followed by a corrective pullback and another bullish move. In the near term, I expect the pound to continue rising, as the probability of FOMC monetary policy tightening is currently extremely low. If the bears launch a new advance, bearish patterns will be required for short positions, but there are currently none. The bulls received a buy signal from imbalance 24, which remains valid. The targets for further gains in the pound are the highs from July 15 and May 1 at 1.3557 and 1.3656, respectively; the first target has already been reached. Traders should pay close attention to the 1.3557 swing, from which a liquidity sweep could occur. If this happens, the pound could decline somewhat.

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Top stories for investors: capital outflows, monetary rhetoric, and tech announcements

14.08.2026

The euro rose to a two-month high on the back of stronger eurozone data and expectations of an ECB rate hike, which increased demand for the currency. Gold hit a two-month peak as US inflation risks eased and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rose. Foreign investors have withdrawn capital from Asian tech markets for the ninth consecutive month, mainly from Taiwan and South Korea, reflecting skepticism about the outlook for the chip and AI industries. Finally, Google unveiled the Pixel 11 line, Pixel Watch 5, and the Pixel Tag tracker with new Gemini-powered features, which could shift investor interest across supply chains and IT companies. Taken together, these stories underscore a mix of monetary policy, commodity and geopolitical uncertainty, structural capital flows and technological innovation that will drive short- and medium-term market volatility.

Euro trades near two-month highs as markets price in an ECB rate hike

August was a month of triumph for the European currency: the euro pushed close to $1.15, refreshing two-month highs. Markets reacted to pleasant surprises from the eurozone economy and now confidently factor in another round of ECB policy tightening in September.

The eurozone and EU economies grew faster than expected in Q2 2026. Eurozone GDP rose 0.4% (after zero growth previously), and the EU grew 0.5%. Annual growth rates reached 1.0% and 1.2%, respectively. Lithuania and Sweden led quarterly gains, and Ireland made an extra contribution to the headline figures.

Major economies — Germany, France, and Italy — also grew, albeit more modestly. Belgium and Austria remained flat. At the same time, inflationary pressure persists: eurozone headline inflation rose to 2.9% in July, and market-implied inflation expectations for the coming year are around 2.4% — above the ECB's 2% target.

Against the backdrop of more resilient growth and the risk of higher energy prices due to geopolitics (recall the escalation in the Middle East), the market sees a high probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September. In July, the ECB left the deposit rate at 2.25% after a 25-basis-point increase in June — the first since 2023.

ECB Board, including Managing Director Christine Lagarde, stresses that new geopolitical shocks and rising oil prices could push inflation back up. Analysts and traders, commentators note, have already effectively priced in a September hike.

Traders should account for the combination of strong data and likely rate hikes when choosing strategies — from intraday volatility plays to medium-term bets on euro appreciation. The trading instruments discussed in this note (including EUR/USD and other rate- and geopolitics-sensitive products) are available on the InstaForex platform. If you want to react quickly to market moves, you can open an account with InstaForex and download the company's mobile app for easy access to trading and analytics.

Gold rose to a two-month peak amid easing inflation risks and geopolitics

Gold suddenly rallied: on Wednesday the precious metal made a strong move, hitting a two-month high and nearly reaching $2,450 per ounce. Investors reacted to encouraging US inflation data. Those figures gave the market hope that the Fed will not rush to tighten monetary policy, which immediately boosted demand for gold.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Wednesday that the CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year in July, slightly below June's 3.5% and in line with analysts' forecasts. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) was 2.5%, also down. The market responded right away: the CME FedWatch Tool trimmed the probability of a September rate hike to roughly 40% from about 54% a week earlier.

The gold market responded with gains: spot gold rose 1% on Wednesday to a high not seen since June 5, and US gold futures closed up 0.6% at $4,467.50. On Thursday morning, Asian trading brought a mild correction and consolidation — spot prices traded in a $4,383–$4,405 range ahead of the US producer price index for July, due at 8:30 ET.

"Today gold is in a consolidation phase after the CPI-driven rally: near-term expectations for a Fed hike have eased slightly again," commented Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade. Inflation is not the only factor supporting gold demand. Escalating tensions between the US and Iran add demand for safe-haven assets: statements from Tehran about closing the Strait of Hormuz and demands toward Washington reportedly left talks at an impasse. This supports interest in gold against the backdrop of uncertainty over energy supplies.

Meanwhile, the oil market remains sensitive: on Wednesday Brent closed near $89 per barrel, keeping upside risks for underlying inflation — the latest CPI data did not yet reflect the recent jump in oil prices, so the risk of a fresh inflation impulse from energy remains.

For traders, this means increased volatility and trading opportunities: pullbacks and the PPI release could offer entry or hedging points. Risk management and stop orders should be taken into account when planning actions.

Investors flee Asian tech companies — outflows continue into ninth month

Asian bourses continue to lose foreign investors: outflows have now lasted nine months. In July, foreign funds withdrew $25.48 billion from seven markets in the region. The main hit fell on tech hubs Taiwan and South Korea. Investors are massively selling semiconductor giants' shares, fearing that huge investments in AI won't meet expectations and that current valuations in the sector are too high.

Almost all the outflow came from Taiwan — $22.95 billion, about 90% of the total, after roughly $8 billion of net sales in June. South Korea lost $6.26 billion — its third month with a negative balance. Taken together, the two largest markets saw $29.21 billion leave, exceeding the regional total. The difference is explained by partial inflows in some countries that offset outflows.

The tech sector is in turmoil: investors are frantically selling stocks tied to AI and semiconductor production. BNP Paribas analysts link the sell-off to growing skepticism: the market no longer believes in prior growth forecasts for chip demand and fears companies will struggle to service their debt. Chinese developer Moonshot added fuel to the fire — the announcement of their affordable AI solutions cooled investor enthusiasm, casting doubt on super-profits for microprocessor makers.

Taiwan suffered a "black day": on July 17 the TAIEX plunged a record 2,953.71 points, a 6.47% drop. The market's main driver, TSMC, fell more than 7%.

Meanwhile, in South Korea, euphoria has given way to a sober assessment: after a historic break above 9,000 points in mid-June, the Kospi entered a correction. Earlier the market had been carried by two giants — Samsung Electronics and SK hynix — whose combined weight in the index's capitalization exceeded half.

Regulators have intervened too: in mid-July South Korean watchdogs tightened rules for single-stock leveraged ETFs and ETNs, citing very high volatility — 113% for SK hynix and 96% for Samsung Electronics over the year.

For traders, this implies both higher risks and potential trading situations: volatility opens opportunities for speculative strategies, hedging and rotating capital between sectors.

Google unveiled the Pixel 11 line, Pixel Watch 5, and Pixel Tag

Last Wednesday, at the Made by Google 2026 event, Google introduced a number of new products. The lineup was expanded with the Pixel 11 smartphones, Pixel Watch 5 smartwatches and the Bluetooth tracker Pixel Tag, Google's first entry into the item-tracking segment competing with Apple's equivalent.

The Pixel 11 series includes four models: Pixel 11, Pixel 11 Pro, Pixel 11 Pro XL and the foldable Pixel 11 Pro Fold. All run on the new Google Tensor G6 processor. According to Google, the chip saves about 20% battery, provides roughly 25% faster web page loading and speeds app launches by about 15% compared with the previous generation.

The camera bar design was reworked: it is over 40% thinner than on the Pixel 10, has edge-to-edge glass and a metal frame. The higher-end Pro models include a small "HiLight" indicator — an LED in the camera bar that interacts with Gemini and signals incoming calls.

Prices have risen: all models are $100 more expensive than their predecessors. Starting prices — Pixel 11 from $899, Pro from $1,099, Pro XL from $1,299, Pro Fold from $1,899. As compensation, Google doubled the base storage on the standard and Pro models — now 256 GB. Pre-orders open today, with first shipments starting August 20. The phones ship with Android 17.

Pixel Watch 5 gained new health features: emergency detection for breathing disturbances — if the watch detects a sustained drop in blood oxygen, it can automatically call emergency services. In September, Google will add monthly blood pressure reports and trends in insulin resistance. Pricing starts at $399 for the 41 mm and $429 for the 45 mm. A Stephen Curry special edition is priced at $579.

Pixel Tag will be released November 11: $29 apiece or $99 for a four-pack. The oval tracker connects to Android Find Hub, supports voice location search via Gemini on Pixel Buds, and its replaceable battery is rated for more than a year of operation.

Most of Google's presentation focused on Gemini-powered capabilities. New features include:

• Rambler — a voice input tool focused on recognizing natural, unstructured speech.
• Live Transcribe now recognizes American Sign Language through the Pixel camera.
• Circle to Search is integrated directly into the camera interface to more quickly find information about what you photograph.

For traders, this means increased volatility and news-driven moves: product announcements typically affect stock prices of smartphone makers, component suppliers and companies in the AI/cloud ecosystem.

Traders can use this situation by monitoring market reactions, news spikes and potential changes in valuation for companies linked to chip, sensor and accessory supply.

All mentioned financial instruments are available on the InstaForex platform. To respond quickly to market changes and trade, open a trading account and install the company's mobile app.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Market charges ahead

14.08.2026

Those looking for a reason for optimism find it – and the market didn't search long these days, finding two at once. The S&P 500 closed at a record high for the 27th time this year. The formal reason is clear: the July producer price index unexpectedly remained unchanged, even though economists had forecast an increase. A day earlier, the consumer price index delivered a similar surprise. Two straight days of softer inflation data – and markets are now pricing in the probability of a September Fed rate hike at just 32%. A month ago, the talk was of 75%.

Stock index performance

Treasury yields fell, and Wall Street traders took the developments as a long-awaited signal: Kevin Warsh has been given a reprieve, at least until the next meeting. That said, FOMC officials' words have long been met with considerable skepticism, as the market prefers to trust numbers over rhetoric from Washington.

Meanwhile, the PHLX Semiconductor Index has definitively completed a reversal, gaining about 20% from its late-July low and entering a new bull market, with the bear cycle, according to Dow Jones Market Data, proving the shortest since 2020: just 19 trading days versus the typical 54 sessions. History suggests that after such reversals, the index tends to post double-digit gains within six months and significantly more over a full year.

Semiconductor index performance

However, looking beyond the price action, the picture becomes less clear-cut. US real GDP growth has held around a modest 2.1% over the past year, dipping to 1.5% annualized in the second quarter. The stock market, meanwhile, has gone its own way, gaining 13% year-to-date despite tariffs, expensive oil, and disappointing economic data. In effect, the gap between the economy and the stock market is explained less by a bubble than by accelerating corporate profits. According to Bank of America, average earnings growth for S&P 500 companies has accelerated to 13% versus 8% two years earlier. Excluding Amazon and Alphabet, second-quarter profits rose by an impressive 32%, according to FactSet calculations.

Thus, it's not just about artificial intelligence and demand for cloud storage and chips, although that theme remains the main engine of the rally. Demand for goods and services is steadily rising across the broader economy, not just among AI-linked companies. The risks here are roughly balanced: either the market is indeed ahead of reality, and the economy will eventually catch up, or the stock market has spotted an acceleration not yet visible in official statistics.

Has the market disconnected from reality – or has reality simply not yet caught up with it?

Technically, on the daily chart, the S&P 500 broke above the consolidation range of 7,710-7,770, allowing long positions to be established. These should only be reversed to shorts if the spike and ledge pattern transforms into a false breakout, which would require a fall below 7,740.

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GBP/USD – August 14: UK Economic Data Does Not Favor the Pound

14.08.2026

On the hourly chart, GBP/USD continued to decline toward the 1.3454–1.3458 support level on Thursday after rebounding from the 1.3526–1.3557 level. A rebound from the 1.3454–1.3458 level would favor the pound and a resumption of growth toward 1.3526–1.3557. Consolidation below the 1.3454–1.3458 level would allow traders to expect a continuation of the decline toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3397.

The situation has turned "bullish," but only because of a significant reduction in the size of the identifiable waves. The latest completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the latest upward wave (which is not yet complete) broke the previous high. Thus, the bulls currently have the initiative in the market, but their advantage is not clear-cut. Three unsuccessful attempts to break above the 1.3526–1.3557 level could allow the bears to take the initiative.

The fundamental backdrop did not support the British pound on Thursday. The UK economic growth report was not weaker than expected, but it was still weak. The economy grew by 1.2% year-on-year and by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter. The industrial production report also gave the bulls little reason for optimism. Output declined by 0.2% month-on-month and by 0.2% year-on-year. In both cases, traders had expected higher figures. Thus, the pound had little chance of rising in the first half of the day. In the second half of the day, the U.S. Producer Price Index was released, confirming a slowdown in both headline and core inflation in July. This put some pressure on the U.S. currency, as very few traders now expect the FOMC to tighten monetary policy in September. However, their expectations may change as early as September, when new U.S. inflation and labor-market reports are released. These figures will determine the Fed's interest-rate decision. At present, however, the base-case scenario is that monetary policy parameters will remain unchanged, which does not satisfy the bears.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the 23.6% retracement level at 1.3538 and declined into the 1.3467–1.3482 level. A rebound from this zone would preserve the pound's chances of resuming its rise. Consolidation below this zone would allow traders to expect a bearish advance toward the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3409. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any of the indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became less "bearish" over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators decreased by 6,446, while the number of Short positions increased by 13,446. The current gap between the number of Long and Short positions is effectively 55,000 versus 113,000. The gap and the bears' advantage are gradually narrowing, but the bears still have a very large advantage. Previously, the bears' dominance was not in question, but it is now, as the fundamental backdrop has changed.

I still do not believe in a "bearish" trend for the pound, but in the near term, everything will depend not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central banks' monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market has repositioned itself toward peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States failed before they had really begun. And there is no guarantee that they will resume in the near future.

News Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• United States – Change in Retail Sales (12:30 UTC).
• United States – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC).

On August 14, the economic calendar contains two entries, neither of which is particularly significant. The impact of the fundamental backdrop on market sentiment on Friday may be limited, including during the second half of the day.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling the pair was possible after a rebound from the 1.3526–1.3557 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3454–1.3458. These trades can remain open today. Buying opportunities may arise today after a rebound from the 1.3454–1.3458 level, with a target of 1.3526–1.3557.

The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3140 to 1.3557 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forex forecast 14/08/2026: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, SP500, OIL, BTC

14.08.2026

We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.

Useful links:

My other articles are available in this section

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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The Strait of Hormuz Is Safe, but This Is Not Accurate

14.08.2026

Donald Trump declared this week: "The Strait of Hormuz is completely under the control of the US Navy and is fully safe and free." On Thursday, Iran attacked two state tankers from the United Arab Emirates that were attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz. Once again, the world has confirmed that Donald Trump's words do not entirely align with reality. I have repeatedly spoken about the key points of the current situation in the Middle East. Here they are:

Firstly, what Trump says no longer interests anyone in Iran. Tehran does not intend to resume negotiations with Washington, holding it responsible for the collapse of the Memorandum of Understanding. Now Tehran is demanding compensation for the violation of the agreement since June 17, and, in addition, it presents a comprehensive list of demands necessary for the de-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran's position is firm, but it is based on the strength of its negotiation stance. Washington acted from a position of strength, so why can't Iran act the same way?

Most likely, Iran understands that Trump will not fulfill all of Tehran's ultimatums, but this is irrelevant at the moment. As I mentioned, Iran is buying time until the Congressional elections, in which the Republican Party is very likely to suffer defeat. Even the blockade of Iranian ports now works in Iran's favor. Oil prices are rising again, and fuel prices in the US are increasing. The higher the price of gasoline in America, the greater the inflation, which the Federal Reserve cannot combat right now due to the weakness of the labor market. The higher fuel prices rise, the lower Republican support will be among the electorate. Republicans will lose control of at least one chamber of Congress, and afterward, Trump's initiatives will be blocked by the Democrats. And the Democrats do not want war with Iran. This is the logical chain.

Secondly, any agreement between Iran and Oman is meaningless as long as the US does not meet Iran's ultimatums. The Strait of Hormuz will remain blocked even if Iran and Oman reach an agreement on control over the strait.

Thirdly, Trump no longer has any leverage over Iran. Consequently, Iran currently holds the initiative, and Trump logically decided to "wait and see," because he has nothing else left to do. Based on the above, the Strait of Hormuz will remain blocked, and energy prices will likely continue to rise. The conflict is entering a phase of "freezing," as neither side is ready to escalate it. Moreover, there is no sense in doing so.

Wave Picture for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward section of the trend, while in the shorter term, it is within a downward section of the trend. In my opinion, now is a good time to try to form long positions. However, the instrument may still drop to the 13 figure as part of wave 5 in C. Wave analysis often brings surprises, so I would already start reorienting toward long positions.

Wave Picture for GBP/USD:

The wave picture of the GBP/USD instrument has become quite complicated. Currently, the instrument has formed three waves down, while EUR/USD could form 5 waves. Therefore, the presumed wave 2 may take on a more complex and elongated form if EUR/USD constructs a convincing wave 5 in C. Alternatively, the wave structure may take on a somewhat different appearance than it does now. For the pound, as with the euro, I am inclined toward medium-term purchases. If we abstract from the wave structure of the euro, I would say that the pound has begun constructing a new upward set of waves.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to trade; they often carry changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There is never 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Do not forget about protective orders, such as Stop-Loss.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

UK Economy Grows Four Times Faster than a Year Ago

14.08.2026

The UK GDP grew by 0.4 percent in the second quarter, according to the ONS's preliminary estimate, slowing after a 0.6 percent increase in the first quarter. Year-on-year, the economy is 1.2 percent larger than in the same quarter last year. The result fully matched economists' forecasts.

The main driver of growth was the services sector, which added 0.5 percent. Construction made a modest positive contribution, increasing by 0.3 percent, while industrial production showed no growth, recording zero growth for the quarter. This structure makes the economy noticeably dependent on one segment, as services account for about four-fifths of the UK GDP.

Monthly breakdowns, published simultaneously, explain how the quarter unfolded. GDP grew by 0.3 percent in June after zero growth in May, with the May figure revised downward from the previously published 0.1 percent, following an unchanged 0.1 percent decline in April. In other words, the quarter began weakly and was pulled up exclusively by a strong June.

The context of last year makes the current figures look much more convincing. In 2025, the UK economy was virtually stagnant, with growth of 0.2 percent in the second quarter and 0.1 percent in both the third and fourth quarters. In this context, consecutive growth of 0.6 and 0.4 percent in the first two quarters of 2026 signals a noticeable acceleration, with an annual growth of 1.3 percent recorded for 2025.

Per capita figures confirm that the growth is real, rather than explained solely by demographics. Real GDP per capita increased by 0.4 percent for the quarter and by 1.0 percent year-on-year. In comparison, throughout much of 2025, this figure showed little change, with zero dynamics in the third and fourth quarters.

The most interesting aspect for monetary policy was the block of price indicators, which went almost unnoticed. Nominal GDP rose by 0.8 percent for the quarter and by 4.1 percent year-on-year. Meanwhile, the GDP deflator, the broadest indicator of inflation in the domestic economy, increased by only 0.4 percent for the quarter compared to 1.1 percent in the first quarter. Year-on-year, the deflator stood at 2.9 percent, with a significant contribution from household expenditures, exports, and gross capital formation. This sharp quarterly deceleration in the deflator represents a hidden argument for the doves at the Bank of England, which weakened the British pound yesterday.

Unlike the consumer price index, the GDP deflator encompasses the entire domestic economy rather than just consumer spending, reflecting changes in relative export-to-import prices. Its nearly threefold slowdown over the quarter indicates that internal price pressures in the UK economy are noticeably cooling, even in the face of the external energy shock from the conflict surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.

For the BoE, the report presents a mixed but rather calming picture. The central bank maintained the rate at 3.75 percent at the last meeting, with a 6-3 vote, while Huw Pill, Megan Greene, and Catherine Mann advocated for an immediate increase. Moderate but sustainable growth at 0.4 percent, combined with a slowing deflator, does not give hawks any new arguments, and there is also no obvious weakness that would justify a rate cut. Traders continue to assess the probability of a rate hike in September at just above 50 percent, and the statistics have not significantly shifted this assessment.

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Bitcoin No Longer Correlates with Stock Indexes and Gold

14.08.2026

Bitcoin and Ether continue to correct, and the correction may take quite a long time. Over the past one and a half months, Ether and Bitcoin have recovered slightly, but there is still no sign of the end of the downtrend that began last year. The fundamental backdrop remains weak for the crypto segment and is mainly reflected in low spot demand, the flow of capital into the artificial intelligence sector, and the Federal Reserve's commitment to achieving 2% inflation, which implies, at minimum, the maintenance of tight monetary policy in the near term. Thus, we still do not see grounds for a prolonged rise in Bitcoin and Ether.

Meanwhile, independent experts are increasingly discussing a new status for Bitcoin in the global financial system. Recall that Bitcoin was for a long time linked to US stock indexes (both assets are risky) or to gold (a safe asset). According to most "experts" in recent years, Bitcoin was supposed to rise at any given moment. If gold rises, Bitcoin should rise too, because Bitcoin is "digital gold," a "hedge against inflation," and a "safe haven." If the US stock market rises, Bitcoin should rise as well, because Bitcoin is a risky asset. Most of these "experts" have still failed to decide what Bitcoin actually is: a risky asset or a "safe haven"? And this fact explains better than anything to traders whether they should listen to statements by Michael Saylor, Cathie Wood, or Robert Kiyosaki. All these businessmen are respected figures in the financial world, but they are parties interested in Bitcoin's growth. Because they themselves have investments in "digital gold" or manage companies engaged in investments. Naturally, they will forecast eternal growth of the first cryptocurrency, because growth requires an inflow of capital and new investors. If neither the first nor the second exists, how will the asset grow?

By the way, the US stock market does not need advertising and constant growth forecasts. US stock indexes continue to rise regardless. Yes, many experts note another "bubble" that can burst at any moment. But it has not burst yet. As for Bitcoin, the asset's price has been falling for three quarters already.

Trading Recommendations for BTC/USD:

Bitcoin continues to form a full-fledged downtrend. We continue to expect a decline targeting $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the three-year uptrend), although this level has, in essence, already been worked through. But we do not believe the downtrend is over. The last "bearish" FVG pattern was formed in the $68,000–$70,700 area on the daily TF, so this area acts as a POI for short positions over the coming weeks. On the 4-hour TF, Bitcoin is again inclined to fall, but most likely movements will remain choppy and "swingy." Traders can consider trade options from local patterns, but we would not expect strong moves now.

Trading Recommendations for ETH/USD:

On the daily TF, the downtrend that began in August last year continues to form. The key sell pattern remains the "bearish" order block on the weekly TF. We do not believe the current downtrend is over, since there are no signs of its completion for either Bitcoin or Ether. A second wave of correction is currently underway, which recently transformed into a flat. In a flat, you can only trade from its boundaries, and the further direction will be determined after the flat ends. Near the upper boundary of the sideways channel, $1,800–$1,942, no deviation or pattern was formed, so no trading signal appeared. At present, Ether is located exactly in the middle of the channel.

Notes on illustrations:

CHOCH – break of trend structure.

Liquidity – liquidity, stop-loss, pending orders that market makers use to accumulate their positions.

FVG – area of price inefficiency. Price moves very quickly through such areas, indicating the complete absence of one side in the market. Subsequently, price tends to return and receive a reaction from such areas in continuation of the main trend.

IFVG – inverted area of price inefficiency. After returning to such an area, the price does not receive a reaction there but impulsively breaks through and then tests from the other side.

OB – Order block. A candle on which a market maker opened a position to take liquidity to form their own position in the opposite direction.

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Trading Signals for BITCOIN on August 14-17, 2026: sell below $64,500 (200 EMA - 4/8 Murray)

14.08.2026

Bitcoin is trading around $63,467, below the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 21-day simple moving average (SMA), after rebounding from a low of $62,800 during Thursday's US trading session.

Bitcoin is expected to continue rising in the coming hours; for that to happen, the cryptocurrency would need to break above $63,655. A break above $64,000 could help Bitcoin continue its upward move toward the Murray 5/8 level, around $65,625.

If Bitcoin encounters strong resistance around $64,136, we would expect the downtrend to continue, and we anticipate it will reach the Murray 4/8 level, around $62,500, in the coming days. A decisive break below this level alone could cause the instrument to fall to the psychological level of $60,000.

The Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal, so if Bitcoin encounters strong resistance in the coming hours, we will plan further selling.

Bitcoin is likely to consolidate over the next few days below $64,500 and above $62,500; therefore, we will look for opportunities to buy and sell between the borders of this range.

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Trading Signals for GOLD on August 14-17, 2026: sell below $4,375 (21 SMA - 4/8 Murray)

14.08.2026

Gold is trading around $4,321 following a sharp technical correction, after reaching a high of $4,449 yesterday during the Asian session.

From that level, gold has fallen sharply and is likely to continue declining in the coming days until it reaches the Murray 3/8 level, around $4,218, or it could even find strong support around $4,193, at the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA).

If, in the coming hours, gold reaches the $4,320 low—which represents the low from August 7—a technical rebound could occur, as this level technically represents the daily S_1 support level. If XAU remains above this zone, gold is likely to recover in the coming hours.

A move toward $4,375 could be considered an opportunity to open short positions. On the other hand, if the price reaches $4,387, it will be considered a clear signal to sell in the coming days, with targets around the Murray 3/8 level.

The Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal at the moment; therefore, as long as the instrument trades below the Murray 4/8 level in the coming hours, our outlook will remain negative.

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Trading Signals for CRUDE OIL on August 14-17, 2026: buy above $79.88 (200 EMA - 5/8 Murray)

14.08.2026

Crude oil is trading around $80.43, rebounding after reaching the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at the lower band of the uptrend channel, around $79.88.

Since reaching the $83.66 area, crude oil has been undergoing a technical correction and is likely to resume its uptrend in the coming days. Therefore, we will look for buying opportunities while the price consolidates above the psychological $80 level.

A decisive break below $79.88 could change the outlook for crude oil, and we could see it drop to $75 or even return to the early August low of around $70.30.

The Eagle indicator shows a positive signal for crude oil, and our outlook remains positive as long as the price stays above the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA); even if it breaks above the Murray 5/8 level, the outlook could still point to an upward move toward the Murray 6/8 level, around $87.50.

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Trading Signals for EUR/USD on August 14-17, 2026: sell below 1.1550 (21 SMA - 6/8 Murray)

14.08.2026

The euro is trading around 1.1530 within a downtrend channel that has been forming since early August. EUR/USD rebounded during Thursday's US trading session, but it may struggle to continue rising as it faces strong weekly resistance.

From a technical viewpoint, the euro could encounter strong resistance near the upper band of the downtrend channel, at 1.1550.

If EUR/USD reaches this resistance in the coming hours, it could present an opportunity to open short positions in the coming days, with downward targets at the 200-day EMA, around 1.1487. Ultimately, the euro could find strong support near the 6/8 Murray level, at 1.1474.

The outlook for the euro remains bearish over the next few days, so we will look for opportunities to sell at 1.1570, as this area technically represents strong resistance that coincides with the 200-day EMA on the daily chart.

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What to Watch on August 14? Fundamental Events Review for Beginners

14.08.2026

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Several macroeconomic releases are scheduled for Thursday. In the European Union today, the Q2 GDP report will be published, but most experts say this indicator is not important. In the United States today there are medium-significance reports: retail sales and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. If the actual values deviate strongly from forecasts, they could provoke a market reaction. However, volatility in the currency market has been rather weak for two weeks now. Therefore, it is unlikely we will see strong movements today.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There is absolutely nothing to single out among Friday's fundamental events. Comments from Federal Reserve representatives would be interesting at this time, because traders need to understand the current stance of the US central bank. Recent US labor market reports have been disappointing; inflation has slowed for the second consecutive time, yet it remains fairly high. On the one hand, the key rate should be raised; on the other hand, why raise it if inflation is falling and the labor market is experiencing renewed problems? The more "dovish" comments we hear, the worse the dollar's position may become. We believe the Fed will not tighten monetary policy in September.

The geopolitical background still leaves much to be desired. The US and Iran continue to exchange strikes regularly; negotiations are not being conducted at this time; the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or partially closed, Yemeni Houthis maintain a blockade of Saudi Arabia, and Tehran threatens to completely close the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait if Washington again tries to pressure it. The market does not believe Donald Trump's statements, and Iran now prefers to negotiate with Oman rather than with the US. Tehran has presented a list of demands to Washington that are necessary for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but Trump is unlikely to comply.

General Conclusions:

During the last trading day of the week, currency pairs may again trade rather weakly, since even this week's inflation report failed to stir the market. The euro can be traded today from the area 1.1527–1.1531, and the pound sterling from the area 1.3456–1.3476.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is assessed by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades are opened around a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can form a multitude of false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. When trading based on MACD signals on the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to do so only when volatility is high and a trend line or channel supports the trend.
5. If two levels are too close to each other (from 5 to 20 pips), they should be regarded as a support or resistance area.
6. After a 15-pip move in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to break even.

What the Charts Show:

Support and resistance price levels (areas) are the targets when opening buy or sell orders or sources of signals.

Red lines denote channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate in which direction trading is currently favored.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (as listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be approached with utmost caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginners in Forex trading should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

How to Trade the GBP/USD Currency Pair on August 14? Simple Tips and Trade Review for Beginners

14.08.2026

Trade Review for Thursday:

1H chart of the GBP/USD pair

The GBP/USD pair remained within the upward channel on the hourly TF on Thursday, but movement was extremely weak. Pound sterling retains an upward bias, but it is struggling to advance further. We cannot say there are no grounds for this. This week, for example, the US inflation report was released, which showed a second consecutive slowdown (albeit within forecasts). Slowing inflation means the Federal Reserve has fewer reasons to tighten monetary policy, especially given the dire state of the labor market. However, traders were not particularly impressed by the slowdown in consumer prices, as they expect the indicator to rise in August amid higher energy prices, particularly oil, to $90. In July, Brent fell to $70 per barrel. The conflict in the Middle East persists, and Tehran and Washington do nothing but bombard each other with new demands and ultimatums. We see no desire to end the conflict. Thursday's macroeconomic data in the UK did not support the pound.

5M chart of the GBP/USD pair

On the 5-minute TF on Thursday, a buy signal was formed. The price bounced during the European session from the area 1.3456–1.3476 and moved up a "whole" 25 pips. It, of course, did not reach the nearest target. Volatility remains extremely low.

How to trade on Friday:

On the hourly TF, the GBP/USD pair maintains an upward trend. In our view, the pound sterling should continue to rise, even if local factors do not support it. On the weekly TF, the movement from the lower boundary of the sideways channel toward the upper continues. And that movement is not finished. Market belief in a Fed key rate hike in September is melting before our eyes; the latest US macro data have all been weak. Only a consolidation below the upward channel on the hourly TF would allow the dollar to count on growth.

On Friday, novice traders can open short positions if there is consolidation below the area 1.3456–1.3476, with the target 1.3380–1.3386. Long positions can be opened with targets of 1.3587–1.3598 if the price bounces again from the area of 1.3456–1.3476.

On the 5-minute TF, you can now trade at the levels 1.3175–1.3180, 1.3259–1.3267, 1.3319–1.3331, 1.3380–1.3386, 1.3456–1.3476, 1.3587–1.3598, 1.3631–1.3641, and 1.3695. On Friday, there are no important events scheduled in the UK, and in the US, less important reports on retail sales and consumer sentiment will be released. Therefore, we do not expect strong market movements today.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is assessed based on the time it took to form (bounce or level breakthrough). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades are opened around a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can generate a plethora of false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. When trading based on MACD signals on the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to do so only when volatility is high and a trend line or channel supports the trend.
5. If two levels are too close to each other (from 5 to 20 pips), they should be regarded as a support or resistance area.
6. After a 15-pip move in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to break even.

What the Charts Show:

Support and resistance price levels (areas) are the targets when opening buy or sell orders or sources of signals.

Red lines denote channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate in which direction trading is currently favored.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (as listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be approached with utmost caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginners in Forex trading should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

How to Trade the EUR/USD Currency Pair on August 14? Simple Tips and Trade Review for Beginners

14.08.2026

Trade Review for Thursday:

1H chart of the EUR/USD pair

The EUR/USD currency pair traded on Thursday with no notable movement. On the hourly TF, it is clear that for almost two weeks, the euro has been in the 1.1500-1.1582 range. We cannot call this range a "classic flat," but in fact it is exactly that. The market this week does not react to either important data or secondary data. Yesterday, the industrial production report in the European Union and the US Producer Price Index did not cause any market reaction. Earlier, the US inflation report was also ignored. The upward trend persists after the end of the monthly flat, but after a week of growth, the European currency again demonstrates its weakness, and the market — its unwillingness to move.

Meanwhile, the question of Federal Reserve monetary tightening in September can probably be closed at least until September. In September, new inflation and labor market reports will be released, which may force traders to change their views. But right now there are no grounds for the Fed to raise the key rate.

5M chart of the EUR/USD pair

On the hourly timeframe, the price left the sideways channel it spent a month in and has been forming an upward trend that has, frankly, faded over the last two weeks. Taking into account all the events of recent months, we believe that the European currency should continue confident growth. In recent months, the market has been diligently ignoring many factors in favor of the euro, so we continue to expect it to move higher.

On Friday, novice traders can open short positions with the target 1.1461-1.1474 if the price consolidates below the area 1.1527-1.1531. Long positions can be opened in case of a new bounce from the area 1.1527-1.1531, with targets at 1.1584-1.1594. However, volatility is very low right now.

On the 5-minute TF, consider the levels 1.1267-1.1275, 1.1366-1.1377, 1.1461-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1594, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754. On Friday, the EU is scheduled to publish Q2 GDP, and in the US, retail sales and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. All three reports are unlikely to provoke strong movements.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades are opened around a level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can generate a multitude of false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. When trading based on MACD signals on the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to do so only when volatility is high and a trend line or channel supports the trend.
5. If two levels are too close to each other (from 5 to 20 pips), they should be regarded as a support or resistance area.
6. After a 15-pip move in the correct direction, a stop-loss should be set to break even.

What the Charts Show:

Support and resistance price levels (areas) are the targets when opening buy or sell orders or sources of signals.

Red lines denote channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate in which direction trading is currently favored.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (as listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be approached with utmost caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginners in Forex trading should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Recommendations and Trade Review for GBP/USD on August 14. Pound Sterling Is Closer to Collapse

14.08.2026

Analysis GBP/USD 5M

The GBP/USD currency pair also showed no notable movement on Thursday and has been standing still all week. The upward trend remains, as evidenced by the trend line, but it is clear that the upward impulse is weakening and has practically turned into a flat. Until the price consolidates below the trend line and the Senkou Span B line, we would not draw conclusions about the end of the upward trend. The US dollar still has no grounds for growth. Of course, this does not mean that the dollar cannot rise in principle, but in 2026 it has already used all growth factors. Some of them twice. Corrections are, of course, possible, but the pound sterling retains growth prospects, at least on technical grounds. In the long term, the upward trend that began back in 2022 remains.

Yesterday the first and last reports of the week were published in the UK. GDP in Q2 was 0.4% as forecast, and industrial production decreased by 0.2%, which is unsurprising. The market reaction to these two events was a 15-pip drop. That is all you need to know about GBP/USD movements.

In technical terms, the British pound continues to form an upward trend on the hourly TF. It should be recalled that, in the long run, the pair is in a sideways channel and can continue moving from the lower boundary to the upper. The area 1.3465–1.3488 serves as serious support for the pound, and slightly below it there is also the trend line. The US currency is likely to struggle to show growth in the near future.

On the 5-minute TF on Thursday, one buy signal formed, but there was no point in trading it because market movement is still absent. Certainly, traders can open positions, but counting on profit now is extremely difficult.

COT Report

COT reports for the British pound show that non-commercial traders have dominated the market, with sales for several consecutive months. The net position is negative despite the persistence of the long-term upward trend. Given the events in the Middle East, it is not surprising that demand for risk currencies remains weak. The war is formally over, but the conflict persists. Geopolitics can support demand for the US dollar in the near term. However, until there is consolidation below the trend line, we would not expect a strong fall in the pair.

In the long term, the dollar will continue to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, as is clearly visible on the weekly TF. The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policy is aimed, both directly and indirectly, at weakening the US currency. The long-term upward trend remains, as evidenced by the trend line. The price recently tested this line and bounced off it. According to the latest COT report (dated August 4), the "Non-commercial" group closed 6,500 BUY contracts and 13,500 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 7,000 contracts.

Analysis GBP/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form an upward trend. In the long term, both European currencies still "look" upward and have been trading within sideways channels for a full year. This does not cancel the upward trend that began back in 2022. For the pound sterling, we expect continued growth in the coming weeks. The upward trend will be interrupted if the price consolidates below the trend line.

For August 14 we highlight the following important levels: 1.3042–1.3050, 1.3096–1.3115, 1.3179–1.3187, 1.3301–1.3309, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3465–1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671–1.3681. The Senkou Span B (1.3471) and Kijun-sen (1.3508) lines may also be sources of signals. It is recommended to move the stop-loss to breakeven after the price moves 20 pips in the correct direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.

On Friday, there are no important events or publications scheduled in the UK, but the economic reports on Thursday elicited little reaction. There is no movement in the market, and the macroeconomic backdrop cannot awaken it. In the US today — retail sales and consumer sentiment reports.

Trading recommendations:

Today, traders can open short positions with the target 1.3388 if the price consolidates below the area 1.3465–1.3480 and the trend line. Long positions can be opened in the event of a bounce from the area 1.3465–1.3480, with the target 1.3588.

Notes on illustrations:

Price support and resistance levels (resistance/support) — thick red lines near which movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.

The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines — Ichimoku indicator lines — transferred from the 4-hour to the hourly timeframe. They are strong lines.

Extreme levels — thin red lines from which price previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.

Yellow lines — trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts — the size of the net position of each category of traders.

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